Jorge Masvidal likes Justin Gaethje as a person and as a fighter, but he does not like his chances against Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250 on June 14.
Speaking during a YouTube appearance, Masvidal opened by establishing his genuine respect for Gaethje before turning to his honest assessment of the matchup.
“I’ll tell you the truth, man. I got to kick it with Gaethje for the FBI seminar. You know, we spent a lot of days together. I was with Gaethje, his dad. You know, I definitely like the dude, man. You know, though he said some things about me in the past and stuff, I like the dude. I like him as a person, as a fighter. Obviously, who doesn’t like this dude?”
The respect did not change his read on the fight itself.
“Stylistically, statistically, I think his chances are really slim with Ilia. Just a bad style for him. You know, Gaethje has won a lot of tough fights that he’s been getting cracked and then he manages to come back. With Ilia, not only does he have the power, but he ain’t no coming back.”
Masvidal zeroed in on Topuria’s defensive discipline as the quality that makes him particularly difficult for a fighter with Gaethje’s style.
“Not just that, he has very good defense. So, it’s not like he opens himself up for things. You know, Ilia is very, very disciplined. The way he throws his punches, the way he brings his head back, the way his head’s always moving off center line. Like, I don’t see many chances for Gaethje. I think this is just a very bad fight for Gaethje.”
He left the door open for a Gaethje upset while making clear he does not expect it.
“But if Gaethje wins this fight, holy smokes, right? Like, who the f**k saw that coming? You know, he pulls that sh*t off, that’s gonna be crazy. But I don’t see it, though. I don’t see it happening.”
The betting market at the time of the segment reflected a similar gap, with Topuria listed as a heavy -520 favorite and Gaethje at +350.