“Trailblazer” quickly returned to the win column, landing a submission victory over Oleksiejczuk that will no doubt go down as one of the most gruesome in recent memory.
Holland On UFC 302 Armbar: ‘I’m Going To Have To Do A Full-Blown Break…’
During his post-fight press conference, Holland looked back on the finishing sequence of his clash with Oleksiejczuk, which came just over 90 seconds into the bout.
“Big Mouth” recalled hearing a quick pop of the arm, which wasn’t enough to draw a tap out of “Hussar.” Holland joked that responsibility for the injury lies with referee Herb Dean, who dismissed his initial calls to halt the fight before applying further pressure on Oleksiejczuk’s arm.
“Herb Deanās fault. I asked him to stop it a little earlier, but Herb Dean was like, ‘Youāve got to go a little bit longer.’ Alright, cool, cool,” Holland said jokingly. “When I first put him in the armbar, I heard the pop. After that, it wasnāt popping again and I was like, Iām going to have to do a full-blown break. So I kept trying to do a little chihuahua scoot, get myself underneath there and then hit a good pull after that. But the guy is tough as nails.
“He hit me with a good shot. Tough guy… I fought John Phillips for my first UFC win, and I had a feeling he would be like John Phillips but better,” Holland continued. “I definitely want to win the fight because I like both of my checks, but (I wish) no harm to him. I hope heās okay and I hope itās truly not broken because he seemed to be a cool guy.”
The result marked Holland’s first victory since a first-round D’arce choke against Michael Chiesa at UFC 291 last July. Defeats to Jack Della Maddalena and Page subsequently halted his charge up the welterweight ladder.
Having rebounded up at 185 pounds, it remains to be seen which division will stage the 31-year-old’s Texan’s next outing. But given his penchant for high activity, it likely won’t be long until we find out.
Headlining was lightweight kingpin Islam Makhachev, who put his gold on the line against an established 155-pound contender for the first time. If he was to tie Khabib Nurmagomedov and Benson Henderson’s record for defenses in the division, the Dagestani had to prevent a potential fairytale ending to the career of Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier.
Intrigue was also on the co-headliner, which saw former middleweight champion Sean Strickland enter the cage for the first time since losing his title to Dricus Du Plessis this past January. In his way of a quick rebound victory was the always dangerous (and unpredictable, both verbally and physically) Paulo Costa.
Elsewhere, notable names like Kevin Holland, Randy Brown, Jailton Almeida, and Bassil Hafez all looked to leave Prudential Center with victories. But did they come together to form an entertaining night of fights?
Let’s find out with all the positives and negatives from UFC 302.
To the surprise of absolutely nobody, the promotion’s new glove design did absolutely (excuse my French) f**k all to solve the main issue that has long been visible at practically every event.
No matter how many adjectives and long, technical words the UFC put in its announcement of the new design prior to UFC 300, the absence of the word “poke” was immediately pointed to as a concern.
Spending thousands on a new glove design that solves issues people hadn’t even thought of instead of, you know, just fixing the problem everyone is aware of is quite something from the UFC.
Also, you’re not getting away without a word, too, Herb Dean.
If I hear the words “hard warning” followed by no point deduction after another foul, I’m going to lose my mind. Not only did Lima deliver another poke, he then completed an egregious fence grab while Raposo attempted to take him down.
Superb start to the night.
Negative – Don’t Let It Go To The Scorecards
Whenever I write negatives on judging, I always starts with a note on how I’m among those more inclined to defend the work of those cageside than criticize and believe the debate surrounding judging is largely born out of the fanbase’s lack of understanding regarding the scoring criteria.
The idea that the American won that fight is ludicrous to me following initial viewing, and had another judge followed suit, it would have gone down as a sure-fire robbery ā given that I usually mock those who cry robbery after decisions, I don’t use that word lightly.
One thing I will say, however, is the talented Aaron Bronsteter saw things a lot closer than us at home did. While sat behind a judge, the Canadian reporter perceived the bout as a tight affair, reminding us just how different the in-person experience can be.
From one angle cageside, judging isn’t an easy job. It seems like a major flaw of MMA that fights can appear so different depending on whether someone is watching from a judge’s seat or from home.
For what it's worth, I am sitting directly behind one of the judges' positions and not watching the broadcast.
— Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter) June 1, 2024
Hammering home the suggestion that UFC 302 fighters should have been particularly keen to find a finish were a pair of 30-27 scorecards for Bassil Hafez a couple of fights later. There’s no doubt in mind that Hafez won, but there’s also little doubt that Mickey Gall’s work in round three was enough to be rewarded.
Thankfully, no fighter walked away with a wrong result. But it’s only a matter of time until someone does.
Positive – WAR
The UFC 302 preliminary card was held in decision city. Thankfully, while we did get an utter snoozefest in Grant Dawson vs. Joe Solecki, we got the opposite when Hafez and Gall did battle.
Topping the early prelims, Hafez proved that his surprisingly strong performance in a short-notice debut against the high-ranked Jack Della Maddalena was no fluke, walking Gall down and landing some heavy blows across the duration of three rounds.
And for Gall, while he may have lost a third straight fight, he was coming from a lengthy layoff following back surgery, and his late rally suggested that he’s set to be a tough out for up-and-coming welterweights moving forward.
The highlight of this fight was the third and final round, with the pair channeling their inner Max Holloway to throw down with reckless abandon in the dying seconds.
Violence was fairly sporadic throughout UFC 302. It was frequent in this clash.
I’m not a religious person, but I pray to whatever higher power may be out there when heavyweights enter the Octagon. What do I ask for? A quick finish and the prevention of a classic full-distance slog.
Of all the people to answer my prayers, Jailton Almeida was a turn up for the books.
That surprise is an exaggeration, of course. Prior to his showdown with Derrick Lewis last November, “Malhadinho” was a prolific and destructive finisher. But five rounds of nothing against “The Black Beast” and a similar strategy against Curtis Blaydes prior to being hammer-fisted to a defeat changed the narrative.
Having had no finishes up to that point and just witnessed close to 15 minutes of control from Dawson, Almeida’s finish was as needed to boost UFC 302 as it was to reinvigorate his career.
Death, taxes, Joe Rogan and Daniel Cormier having no clue how fights are scored.
Judging is far from perfect in MMA. Dave Tirelli displayed that much with his work on Saturday night. But equally as worrying as some unjustifiable scorecards is the utter tripe spouted by the UFC commentary team.
It’s nothing new. For years, the likes of Cormier and Dominick Cruz have shown that despite their illustrious fighting careers, they still have zero idea on what the judges are actually looking for. That’s left the latter believing a cut sustained in a later round could influence the scoring of an entire fight.
“DC,” meanwhile, is a serial offender when it comes to nonsense about control time, along with Rogan. They were at it again during UFC 302, suggesting that a near fight-ending choke and clean elbow from the bottom on the side of Joe Solecki wasn’t enough to overcome Grant Dawson’s control time, which came with limited offense.
That is, of course, not true.
The frustrating part here was that only one judge rewarded Solecki for a clear advantage in effective offense that could lead to the conclusion of the fight ā as is laid out in the scoring criteria. The immediate weighs more than the cumulative, and that made round one clear for Solecki, in my eyes. Even if you are going to justify the round going to Dawson, you simply can’t do so by mentioning control time.
Oh, but how Rogan and Cormier’s tune changed when it was a Russian laying on top instead of an American.
Wouldn’t be clear and obvious bias would it, boys?
The sooner Laura Sanko ā the only commentator who seems willing to do her job correctly ā is made a permanent fixture cageside, the better.
Negative – Gasper Oliver
I’ve seen some shoddy refereeing in my time, but what Gasper Oliver did at UFC 302 really takes the cake.
The main card opened with Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. And in a further advert for the promotion’s new glove design, the Brazilian was the victim of a deep eye poke in round one.
Referee Oliver correctly separated the pair and paused the action. Seconds later, though, he randomly insisted the fight continue, denying Zaleski dos Santos any time to recover. When the capoeira specialist endured another poke shortly after, Oliver didn’t even go as far as to stop the bout.
Jason Herzog was fortunately on hand to educate the third man inside the Octagon between rounds, but referees requiring in-cage tuition isn’t exactly encouraging.
Welcome, Gasper Oliver, to the Kerry Hatley tier of officiating.
Gasper Oliver is only reffing until his screenplay gets picked up.
I’m sure whoever decided to bump Alex Morono vs. Niko Price 2 to the main card had their reasons. What those reasons are, however, is unclear.
Originally set for PPV was Almeida vs. Romanov. I’d normally be praising a late switch that saw heavyweights taken off the main slate, but what we got instead was a second chapter to a matchup that delivered an unenjoyable 15 minutes of viewing.
At this point in their careers, power is not something either Morono or Price have in spades. With that, as the pair fatigued and actually resembled the kind of slog I was concerned about seeing from the heavyweights, any vulnerability was offset by what looked to essentially be pillow-fisted punches.
The main card started well with an entertaining scrap from a pair of high-level welterweights. Insert the opposites of “entertaining” and “high-level” and you’ll have an accurate description of the main card’s sophomore bout.
Nothing makes you question your own brain quite like putting a grim injury down as a positive. That’s MMA, folks…
Kevin Holland by way of submission was a strong possibility heading into his short-notice middleweight return at UFC 302. But Holland by way of one of the most gruesome armbars in recent memory was not necessarily on many people’s bingo cards.
Things looked a little scary for “Trailblazer” when he was dropped by a hard MichaÅ Oleksiejczuk left hand. But after he quickly got ahold of the Polish fighter’s arm (to which Oleksiejczuk had the reaction time of a tortoise), he quickly transitioned from on the ropes to on the ascendancy.
I’ll be honest, as Holland twisted his opponent’s arm in unnatural ways, I looked away. Through a gap in my fingers, I did see the moment Oleksiejczuk’s arm bent, snapped, hyperextended ā whatever form of mangled it was in. The fact he still didn’t tap is ludicrous.
On a card that had just one finish up to that point, Holland’s quick and violent submission was a welcome moment of shock.
Should we really expect anything different when Sean Strickland fights?
Strickland is a perennial point-fighter, yet we hear shouts of “get ready for a bloodbath” and “we’re gonna go in that cage and try to kill each other for your entertainment” at every press conference.
At this point, can fans just laugh instead of cheer? Because the notion of “Tarzan” going in and brawling anyone is as likely as Joe Biden getting a walkout alongside Dana White at a UFC event.
But, Strickland is extremely good at what he does. No matter what comes back at him (in this instance, not much), it’s impossible not to give him credit for creating a style and implementing it well time and time again.
It’s just a shame that style is among the dullest in the UFC.
Dustin Poirier may not have completed his story in the way he and many had wished for, but the UFC 302 main event was not a bad way to go out.
That’s if “The Diamond” has reached the end, of course. He was noncommittal post-fight as he came to terms with his third failed attempt at reaching the undisputed throne in the UFC lightweight division.
Of his championship performances, none were more impressive than his effort in Newark. “The Diamond’s” improvements since being submitted by Khabib Nuyrmagomedov and Charles Oliveira was evident, and he certainly had Makhachev on the ropes at times.
The Russian standout, however, proved to be too good. And while some choose to detract from his reign owing to the competitive nature of Saturday’s headliner, Makhachev’s performance was more than impressive.
That’s not least on the feet, where the champ pieces Poirier up at times with beautiful combinations. The Makhachev and Khabib debate rages on, but there’s little doubt who has the edge on the feet.
While the bantamweight gold was on the line at the venue 13 months ago, this weekend saw Islam Makhachev stake his lightweight title against fan favorite Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier.
Elsewhere on the lineup, Kevin Holland made a successful short-notice return to 185 pounds, Randy Brown made a push for the welterweight rankings at the expense of Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, and Jailton Almeida secured a rebound win following his first UFC loss earlier this year.
With the event concluded, see below for the best photos from UFC 302.
In the main attraction, American fan favorite Dustin Poirier hoped to finish his story by checking the final box in his career. Standing in his way of an undisputed lightweight title crowning at the third time of trying, however, was a formidable force in Islam Makhachev.
The Dagestani champion left the crowd disappointed by submitting Poirier in the fifth round of a memorable headliner. In doing so, he tied his mentor, the great Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Benson Henderson for title defenses by notching his third at UFC 302.
The Number One P4P continues his reign š@MAKHACHEVMMAĀ defeats Dustin Poirier by submission to REMAIN the lightweight champion of the world!
All eyes were also on the co-headliner, as former middleweight titleholder Sean Strickland competed for the first time since being unseated from the throne by the barest of margins this past January in Toronto. After being denied an immediate rematch with Dricus Du Plessis, “Tarzan” staked his claim for a title shot by stalling the ambitions of Paulo Costa in a lackluster five-round affair.
Before those matchups, the likes of Kevin Holland, Niko Price, Randy Brown, Roman Kopylov, Jailton Almeida, and Bassil Hafez all had their hands raised.
With the event concluded, check out the full results below, followed by some of the highlights!
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier Results & Highlights
Main Card:
Lightweight Championship Main Event: Islam Makhachev def. Dustin Poirier via submission (D’arce choke): R5, 2:42
Middleweight Co-Main Event: Sean Strickland def. Paulo Costa via split decision (50-45, 46-49, 49-46)
Middleweight: Kevin Holland def. MichaÅ Oleksiejczuk via submission (armbar): R1, 1:34
Welterweight: Niko Price def. Alex Morono via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Welterweight: Randy Brown def. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Entering UFC 302 off back-to-back losses, Kevin Holland got a much-needed victory and did it in gruesome fashion.
Holland took on Michal Oleksiejczuk as part of the event’s pay-per-view card. Holland found himself in trouble in the first round, getting dropped by a left hand.
However, he recovered enough to throw up his guard and get into a triangle position, eventually getting his legs around one of Oleksiejczuk’s arms. With Oleksiejczuk not tapping, Holland continued to apply pressure until he appeared to break the arm.
Referee Herb Dean would eventually call the fight, much to the dismay of Oleksiejczuk.
Kevin Holland Likely Breaks Opponent Michal Oleksiejczuk’s Arm At UFC 302
Kevin Holland got cracked in the face and still got dude in the nastiest armbar ever š #ufc302
— š½ššššššššā (@Sa_Gwang) June 2, 2024
Kevin Holland a real one because you can tell he didnāt want to do him like that. Sometimes itās better to wave the white flag and tap, rather than get your elbow cracked #UFC302pic.twitter.com/Rr0xYzjbu0
Holland is now 3-2 in his last five fights, with additional wins over Michael Chiesa and Santiago Ponzinibbio. He entered tonight off back-to-back losses against Jack Della Maddalena and Michael “Venom” Page.
Headlining UFC 302, Poirier is tasked with bringing an end to the reign of Islam Makhachev, a feat that then-featherweight kingpin Alexander Volkanovski failed to achieve in two attempts last year.
The co-main event also boasts considerable stakes, as former middleweight titleholder Sean Strickland looks to remain within touching distance of the belt. Having missed out on an immediate rematch with Dricus Du Plessis, “Tarzan” must stall the ambitions of Paulo Costa, who is facing the prospect of a long journey back up the ladder should he move to 0-2 in 2024.
Also on the lineup, fan favorite Kevin Holland makes the walk as a middleweight once again, top 10 heavyweight contender Jailton Almeida completes a quick turnaround following his first UFC loss this past March, and Randy Brown looks to open the PPV main card in style opposite Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
To prepare yourself for tonight’s event, catch up on the latest betting odds here, look back on the faceoffs from Friday’s ceremonial weigh-ins here, and follow along with the results and highlights here, live from 6:15 PM ET.
MMA Community Gives Final Thoughts On UFC 302: ‘Poirier By Guillotine!’
UFC 302 will get underway shortly, meaning the buildup and time for talking is almost over.
The MMA community is sure to be locked in and engaged in hot discussion over the events that unfold in the coming hours, but throughout today, plenty have been getting in their late predictions and final thoughts on the momentous occasion.
Dustin could cause one of the biggest upsets in UFC history tonight – unlikely, but what a picture perfect finish to a hall of fame worthy career. #ufc302
Dustin knocks Islam out. Becomes champ for the first time. Leaves the belt and his gloves in the center of the octagon. Rides off into the sunset. #ufc302
UFC 302 takes place on Saturday night, and MMA News is here to bring you the final faceoffs from the ceremonial weigh-ins!
The upcoming pay-per-view event at Newark’s Prudential Center provides a chance for UFC Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev to further enhance his legacy on mixed martial arts’ biggest stage.
If the Dagestani is to move closer to his desired status as the greatest of all time, he must get through Dustin Poirier, who is shooting for the undisputed throne for the third time having previously fallen short against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira.
The stakes will also be high in the co-main event, as former middleweight titleholder Sean Strickland enters the cage for the first time since a tight decision loss to Dricus Du Plessis in their championship headliner in Toronto this past January. To stake his claim for a shot earning two-time status in the UFC, Strickland must stall Paulo Costa’s push for another opportunity at the 185-pound gold.
Nevertheless, every fight has remained intact, and all that remained on Friday was for the athletes to face off one final time at the UFC 302 ceremonial weigh-ins!
Check out a full replay via the official UFC YouTube channel below, followed by all the faceoffs!
Topping the lineup will be the returning Islam Makhachev, who makes the walk for the first time in 2024 having not competed since his second successful title defense against Alexander Volkanovski last October. In “Brick City,” the Dagestani must withstand the threat of fan favorite Dustin Poirier.
Before they go to battle, the co-main event will see former middleweight kingpin Sean Strickland back in action. If he’s to earn a potential shot at redemption against Dricus Du Plessis, the outspoken American will have to get past Paulo Costa.
Also in action on Saturday night will be the always entertaining Kevin Holland, top 10 heavyweight Jailton Almeida, and formerly ranked lightweight Grant Dawson.
Ahead of the event, you can get some help from the group of experts at MMA News by checking out their predictions for the UFC 302 main card here.
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier Betting Odds
Listed below are the latest betting odds for UFC 302 (as of 5/31), courtesy of DraftKings.
Main Card:
Islam Makhachev (-600) vs. Dustin Poirier (+440)
Sean Strickland (-265) vs. Paulo Costa (+215)
Kevin Holland (-290) vs. MichaÅ Oleksiejczuk (+235)
Niko Price (+210) vs. Alex Morono (-258)
Randy Brown (-180) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+150)
In Saturday’s main event, Islam Makhachev will look to tie his mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov and Benson Henderson’s record three consecutive title defenses. To do so, the Dagestani must stall the ongoing undisputed ambitions of Dustin Poirier.
Co-headlining, meanwhile, is a pair of prominent middleweight contenders in former champion Sean Strickland and one-time challenger Paulo Costa. Having failed to secure an immediate rematch with Dricus Du Plessis, “Tarzan” will look to keep his name close to the throne at the expense of “Borrachinha.”
Elsewhere, the likes of Kevin Holland, Randy Brown, Jailton Almeida, Roman Kopylov, and Mickey Gall will all make the walk.
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier Weigh-In Results
UFC 302 takes place Saturday, June 1, at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The main card begins at 10 PM ET/7 PM PT, with the preliminary card starting at 6 PM ET/3 PM PT.
See above for replay of the UFC 302 Weigh-In Show, and check out the full results below!
Main Card:
Lightweight Championship Main Event: Islam Makhachev (155lbs) vs. Dustin Poirier (155lbs)
Middleweight Co-Main Event: Sean Strickland (185lbs) vs. Paulo Costa (185lbs)
Middleweight: Kevin Holland (185lbs) vs. MichaÅ Oleksiejczuk (185lbs)
Welterweight: Niko Price (170lbs) vs. Alex Morono (170lbs)
Welterweight: Randy Brown (170lbs) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (170lbs)
UFC 302 is now only a couple of days away, and what better way to get hyped for the upcoming pay-per-view than with some MMA News staff predictions for the intriguing card?
The headline act will see gold on the line, as reigning UFC Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev looks to defend his belt against an established 155-pound contender for the first time. After emerging from two challenges against Alexander Volkanovski with the crown still in his possession, the Dagestani is next tasked with stalling the ambitions of Dustin Poirier.
Setting the stage for them in the co-main event, meanwhile, will be two middleweight contenders hoping to secure title opportunities of their own down the line. Having had his calls for a rematch with Dricus Du Plessis fall on deaf ears, former champion Sean Strickland must bounce back at the expense of Paulo Costa if he’s to earn a chance at achieving two-time status.
Elsewhere, Kevin Holland will make a short-notice return to 185 pounds to square off against MichaÅ Oleksiejczuk, Jailton Almeida will look to rebound from his first UFC defeat opposite Alexandr Romanov, and welterweights Randy Brown and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos battle to kick proceedings off in style on PPV.
UFC 302: MMA News Staff Predictions
Ahead of Saturday’s UFC 302 event, Kyle Dimond, Ryan Jarrell, Thomas Albano, Tyriece Simon, and Andrew Starc have provided their picks for the five-fight main card, which you can see below.
Lightweight Championship Main Event: Islam Makhachev (C) vs. Dustin Poirier
Middleweight Co-Main Event: Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa
Middleweight: Kevin Holland vs. MichaÅ Oleksiejczuk
Heavyweight: Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr Romanov*
Welterweight: Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
*Almeida vs. Romanov has since been demoted to the prelims, with Alex Morono vs. Niko Price now set to go down on PPV
Welterweight: Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Kyle Dimond: The battle of the welterweight top 15 hopefuls opens up the main card in Newark. The Brazilian has a ton of experience and some great wins inside the Octagon. To some extent, the same can be said for his opponent. Both men have been known to suffer defeats to the cream of the crop, so who rises to the top in this one?
For me, Brown has always jumped out as someone with bags of potential if heās able to put a run together. This could be the moment for him but Iām expecting the durability of his opponent to hold up and for the judges to be required. (Prediction: Randy Brown)
Ryan Jarrell: This welterweight fight will be a really exciting one to kick off the main card. My immediate thoughts were to lean toward Brown due to his striking and five-inch reach advantage. But, Zaleski dos Santos is no joke and could very easily win this fight.
The Brazilian has some big wins earlier in his career over Sean Strickland and BenoĆ®t Saint Denis and is (10-3-1) overall in the UFC. I wonāt be betting on this fight because I could see it going either way. Right now, Iām going with Brown to utilize his jab and length en route to a decision. But my opinion may change as the fight gets closer.(Prediction: Randy Brown)
Thomas Albano: The first thing that people will always note about Brown is his massive 78-inch reach. It is incredible of a reach for a fighter to have, and Brown knows how to use it well, managing distance while using his boxing. And while his jabs and his combinations are usually his key to success, donāt count out his grappling. Though he hasnāt had a submission win since UFC 261, “Rude Boy” knows how to handle himself on the ground if the time comes for that.
We have only seen Zaleski dos Santos three times since the end of 2020, but heās 2-0-1 in that span, including a win over a younger Saint Denis. While Zaleski dos Santos has jiu-jitsu in his background, his specialty is his Muay Thai. That means we should be in for a back-and-forth striking battle ā though it will be interesting to see, if this fight does go to the ground, how Brownās long limbs will help him in such an instance.
The problem for Zaleski dos Santos is that heās approaching 38, and while Brown is no Spring chicken either, his reach, energy, and momentum with more activity (wins in six of seven fights since the start of 2021), force me to give him the edge. (Prediction: Randy Brown)
Tyriece Simon: This fight should be a fun start to the UFC 302 main card. Brown and Zaleski dos Santos are coming into their matchup on two-fight win streaks and aiming to make a run in the welterweight division. That said, I lean toward Brown getting the win here. He has the height and reach advantage to stick behind his jab and utilize leg kicks to pick Zaleski dos Santos apart. If “Rude Boy” can stay at a distance, I think he can win decisively. (Prediction: Randy Brown)
Andrew Starc: Brown has won six of his last seven fights, having most recently knocked out Muslim Salikhov in the first round of their February encounter. Zaleski dos Santos, meanwhile, is undefeated in his last three, with his last bout against Rinat Fakhretdinov ending in a majority draw back in November. In what will likely be a mainly striking affair, I think the rangier and younger Brown will get the nod here. (Prediction: Randy Brown)
Consensus: 5-0 Randy Brown
Heavyweight: Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr Romanov
Kyle Dimond: Heavyweights are up next and, once again, my money is on the favorite. Almeida did not have a good night last time out against Curtis Blaydes but heās still proven himself to be in that mix. It was a humbling setback but one that should serve Almeida well going forward as he looks to crack that upper echelon of Blaydes, Ciryl Gane, Tom Aspinall, and Jon Jones.
I havenāt seen much from Romanov as of yet that makes me think he can break into that top group of heavyweights. So, while this isnāt the easiest matchup that is out there for Almeida, I think there could be a gap in quality once both men get tired, paving the way for the Brazilian to score a second-round TKO. (Prediction: Jailton Almeida)
Ryan Jarrell: Almeida will be too powerful and too dynamic for Romanov. I thoroughly expect “Malhadinho” to start fast and win quickly in this heavyweight bout. (Prediction: Jailton Almeida)
Thomas Albano: Big men going to the mat never seems to ring a desirable bell in MMA fans, but thatās exactly what weāre going to get here. If youāre a fan of wrestling and grappling, youāll probably get a kick out of this one. Almeida was on a big win streak coming into his appearance on DWCS, and heās continued to impress since then ā despite getting knocked out by Blaydes. Almeidaās ground dominance can already be seen on the UFC stat sheets. He holds the UFC records for highest control time and top-position percentage. His 21-plus minutes of control time against Derrick Lewis is one for the UFCās record books, as well as the nine takedowns he landed in the first round against Blaydes. If it isnāt obvious a
lready, itās being the one to land the takedowns and unrelenting top-heavy pressure that is Almeidaās key to victory.
That said, his wrestling skills will be tested when he faces another talented man on the mat in Romanov. Like the Brazilian, Romanov, a freestyle wrestler, will also be aggressive and look for takedowns early. But while “King Kong,” has a little bit of a weight advantage (at least based on previous weights between these two fighters), how much success Almeida has had with grappling ā in terms of both finishes and control time ā might be too much for him to handle. (Prediction: Jailton Almeida)
Tyriece Simon: This is a must-win fight for Almeida. After a lackluster performance against Lewis and a knockout loss to Blaydes, “Malhadinho” needs an impressive win. However, Romanov is a tough opponent to defeat. Both fighters will want to take the bout to the ground, but the Moldovan is the bigger fighter and seemingly has the strength advantage. I also believe “King Kong” will be better in the clinch to get to a takedown. Although Almeida is the favorite, I think Romanov has the skillset to get the job done Saturday night. (Prediction: Alexandr Romanov)
Andrew Starc: Almeidaās rapid rise through the heavyweight ranks was cut short with a TKO loss to Blaydes in March. That was his first defeat in 15 fights, having scored wins against Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Lewis along the way. Romanov, meanwhile, got back in the win column against Blagoy Ivanov in July last year following two straight losses. Given Almeidaās grappling prowess and power, I think this will be an easy win for him. (Prediction: Jailton Almeida)
Consensus: 4-1 Jailton Almeida
Middleweight: Kevin Holland vs. MichaÅ Oleksiejczuk
Kyle Dimond: Holland returns to middleweight in search of a win following back-to-back defeats to top welterweights. Despite going up, he is sure to have a considerable height and reach advantage in this fight. Holland is a dangerous finisher, too, and thatās concerning for Oleksiejczuk considering four of his five UFC losses have been submissions. Holland has got some tricky subs in his locker also, so I can see him hurting his opponent and putting him away early, maybe with a performance bonus in there for good measure. āBig Mouthā back with a big win. (Prediction: Kevin Holland)
Ryan Jarrell: Holland is back at middleweight and must feel the pressure to come out and look his best after his most recent performance against Michael Page. Oleksiejczuk boasts 14 KO/TKO wins in his career and made his UFC debut all the way back in 2017. We know this guy belongs and is a tough out for anyone. I do expect Holland to capitalize on his seven-inch reach advantage in this matchup and eventually find a club and sub to end the fight. (Prediction: Kevin Holland)
Thomas Albano: This is a sneaky fun fight that some people might be sleeping on. With 14 of his 19 victories coming by way of KO, we have seen Oleksiejczuk impress with some wicked finishes and powerful displays ā just have a look at his finishes of Cody Brundage and Chidi Njokuani. That said, he hasnāt faced the same kind of competition that Holland has. And while āBig Mouthā has the talk (including inside the cage) that makes him either loved or hated, thereās no doubt he can hold his own with the middleweight contenders in the Octagon.
Holland has his own explosive power, and donāt ever count out his grappling. This will be a great experience for Oleksiejczuk and could prove to be a fun fight. However, Holland just has the experience and overall package thatās going to be too much to handle. A win here could also help Holland rebound from back-to-back losses to Jack Della Maddalena and āVenomā Page. Oleksiejczuk has four submission losses in his last five defeats, and “Trailblazer” should be able to take advantage of that with his previously mentioned grappling. (Prediction: Kevin Holland)
Tyriece Simon: Holland and Oleksiejczuk have the potential to be the Fight of the Night. I believe the critical factor in the matchup is whether Holland’s defense can hold up. Oleksiejczuk tends to swing big punches to try to get a knockout and has the power to do it. If “Trailblazer” can utilize his footwork and head movement to avoid the Polish fighter’s heavy strikes and fight him at a distance, he can finish him. Holland has to be patient and slowly pick Oleksiejczuk apart with jabs and leg kicks early, then ramp up his onslaught in later rounds. I think this will be his game plan, and heāll outperform Oleksiejczuk to a decision or a knockout. (Prediction: Kevin Holland)
Andrew Starc: Holland, for me, might be one of the most frustrating fighters to watch. Since that outrageous KO of Ronaldo Souza back in 2020, which seemed to beckon a rise through the ranks, heās lost six times in 11 fights, including his last two. Oleksiejczukās recent record is similarly patchy, but while Hollandās rangy boxing may cause problems, I think the Pole will get it done. (Prediction: MichaÅ Oleksiejczuk)
Consensus: 4-1 Kevin Holland
Middleweight Co-Main Event: Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa
Kyle Dimond: Here comes the wildcard. Everything about this fight screams a Strickland decision win. Heās defensively aware and weaponizes his cardio, two factors that make him a tough fight for Costa. However, if thereās anyone that can out-crazy Strickland, it might be āBorrachinha.ā Stricklandās recent losses, aside from the left hand of doom from āPoatan,ā have come from the downsides to his style. Against Jared Cannonier and Dricus Du Plessis, he did well but saw rounds slip away, and with Costa not being intimidated by the jabs coming back at him, he might be able to win any round thatās competitive through sheer output and because his strikes are more eye-catching.
Iām not sure whether the pressure of Strickland is going to work as well against such an imposing figure in Costa, and without the former champion being able to make the Brazilian second guess himself, his toughness will keep him in the fight over five rounds and he may be able to take three of them on the cards. (Prediction: Paulo Costa)
Ryan Jarrell: This co-main event fight should be a very interesting stylistic matchup. Iām curious to see what kind of a gameplan Strickland has against the powerful Costa. If the former champion fights smart and doesnāt try to fight “Borrachinha” the way he did Alex Pereira, I think he will grind out a win. I believe this will be the Fight of the Night and end in a narrow decision leaving many bettors upset that their parlays were busted. (Prediction: Sean Strickland)
Thomas Albano: Strickland is going to have quite the test for his first fight back since losing the title. While I havenāt always been the biggest fan of Costaās performances in the Octagon, he poses an interesting challenge in that he has power that Strickland has arguably never seen in the cage before. Itās also arguable to say “Tarzan” hasnāt had the greatest track record when facing upper-level competition at middleweight, but his upset of Israel Adesanya has landed him here.
This could be a fun battle, given how similar these two men can be in the cage. Both like to be aggressive in their striking and have strong wrestling backgrounds. I, however, give the edge to Strickland for two reasons. One, I see Strickland being the more aggressive of the two when it comes to his output. Two,
with this being a five-round bout, the American has more experience competing in these kinds of fights. Costa, in fact, has only gone 25 minutes just one time ā when he and Marvin Vettori competed at light heavyweight in late 2021. Could Costa land some damaging shots? Maybe, but I see Strickland outlasting him in a fight that goes the full way. (Prediction: Sean Strickland)
Tyriece Simon: This matchup is intriguing as both fighters generally love to be the ones pressuring their opponent. Strickland tends to overwhelm his foes by outworking them with his striking activity, while Costa utilizes his power to shut down his competitors. The winner of this fight will be who advances and puts their opponent on the back foot.
Costa will possibly be the aggressor in the first round. If Strickland can weather the storm, use that variation of the Philly Shell that he has had success with, and counter with 1-2 combos, he can build momentum for the second round. At that point, I think “Borrachinha” will slow down and the work Strickland put in the previous round will pay off. Iām not sure the former champion can finish Costa, but he can outwork him to a decision. (Prediction: Sean Strickland)
Andrew Starc: While Strickland lost his middleweight crown in his last outing, it was by the narrowest of margins. His cardio and solid striking are going to cause problems for Costa. While having a good showing in his most recent loss to Robert Whittaker, the Brazilian doesnāt look to be a true threat to the elite of the division. Unless Costa lands something wild, I canāt see Strickland losing on points. (Prediction: Sean Strickland)
Consensus: 4-1 Sean Strickland
UFC Lightweight Title: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier
Kyle Dimond: Gilly or no gilly, itās hard to pick Poirier in this one. If he fought Makhachev 10 times, Iād imagine heād win just a few times, and I donāt think Newark is going to be his night ā not with the current form of the champion. āThe Diamondā is far too good to be counted out and Iām not willing to write him off. But, the simple fact of the matter is itās hard to favor anyone in the division over Makhachev right now.
Thereās several names I think would be a tougher matchup for the champ, at least on paper. We ride into New Jersey as a silly gilly-jumping gaggle, but ultimately, Makhachev will come out on top with a tap of his own. (Prediction: Islam Makhachev)
Ryan Jarrell: Poirier is one of my favorite mixed martial artists and I very much want to pick him here to secure a massive upset and finally become the undisputed champion. Unfortunately, my head tells me that Makhachev is just too well rounded for him.
The American is incredibly gritty and has the ability to stun and put out anyone. I just think the Dagestani will resort to his wrestling if he gets in any major trouble in this fight. I hate to say it, but ultimately I think the champ gets ahold of Poirier’s neck and finishes him with a gilly. (Prediction: Islam Makhachev)
Granted, Poirier has evolved over the years. And one place heāll have the advantage is on the feet. It sounds boring to say that this is a typical striker vs. grappler matchup, especially considering what we saw Makhachev do to Alexander Volkanovski in October. But, thereās a big difference between Volkanovski ā who was coming up 10 pounds, fighting on short notice, and was a bit drained from all of his in-cage activity ā and one of the best 155-pound fighters of the modern day. If Poirier can somehow keep this fight standing ā and resist his desire to jump the gilly ā then just maybe he can pull off the upset.
But thatās easier said than done; Makhachev is a smart man, and he will probably just takedown and wrestle Poirier in the same way his mentor did. (Note: Charles Oliveira even had plenty of control time on Poirier, even though he never landed a takedown on the stat books!) And if that happens, unfortunately for “The Diamond,” it could be the same as it ever was in his third undisputed title fight. (Prediction: Islam Makhachev)
Tyriece Simon: In what is potentially Poirier’s last fight, Iām not sure he can defeat Makhachev. I believe “The Diamond” has the striking ability to give the UFC lightweight champion issues. However, the most significant factor of the fight will be the challenger’s cardio. Lately, Poirier seems to slow down quicker with heavy activity in a fight early as he has gotten older. Iām certain Makhachev is mixing up his striking and grappling to confuse his opponent and sap away Poirierās energy.
It will be a tough night for the Louisianan if Makhachev can get Poirier backing up early and put his back against the cage. The veteran contender has to keep the fight standing to give himself a chance. It may also be beneficial to attack the body of Makhachev and not head hunt early on to slow him down. Poirier also needs to focus on trying to get up rather than going for a submission if he does end up on his back. As good as Poirier is on the ground, heās less likely to get a submission win over Makhachev and would sacrifice control time to his opponent. Ultimately, I believe the champ will be too much for Poirier on Saturday. (Prediction: Islam Makhachev)
Andrew Starc: I can’t see Makhachev losing this one. This is Poirierās third shake at the title, and while heās shown his elite caliber over the years, most recently with his KO of Saint Denis in March, I donāt think he has an answer for Makhachevās grappling. I think this one might go the same way for Poirier as his first title shot against Khabib.(Prediction: Islam Makhachev)
Consensus: 5-0 Islam Makhachev
That’ll do it for our UFC 302 staff picks! What do you think? Do your picks look similar? Let us know in the comments section! Also, you can check out the UFC 302 undercard below.
