Conor McGregor is back, and the early betting market on his return is telling two very different stories.
UFC CEO Dana White confirmed Saturday night that Conor McGregor will rematch Max Holloway in the main event of UFC 329 on July 11 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The five-round welterweight fight headlines International Fight Week and streams on Paramount+. It is McGregor’s first scheduled bout since he suffered a broken leg in his trilogy loss to Dustin Poirier at UFC 264 in July 2021.
Within hours of the announcement, the early lines were posted. The split between public action and real money is staggering.
Holloway A Heavy Favorite, Sharps All Over Him
According to a BetMGM data card released Sunday, Holloway opened at -345 and has already been steamed to -550. McGregor opened at +250 and has drifted out to +350, by far the longest underdog price of his UFC career.
The kicker is the split. BetMGM reports 95% of total bets are riding with McGregor, but only 1% of the handle (the total dollars wagered) is on him. Holloway sits at 5% of tickets and 99% of the money. That is the textbook profile of a public-versus-sharp split. Small bettors are stacking single-digit tickets on the Notorious one for the storyline, while professional money is hammering Holloway in size.
Other books are even more aggressive. BetOnline opened Holloway at -450 and McGregor at +350. DraftKings opened the Hawaiian as a -500 favorite, with some offshore markets briefly touching -700 before settling.
What’s Driving The Number
McGregor (22-6) has not won a UFC fight since his 40-second knockout of Donald Cerrone in January 2020. He is 37, has not competed in nearly five years, and will be making just his fourth start at welterweight, where he is 2-1 (wins over Cerrone and Nate Diaz, plus the loss in Diaz 1).
Holloway (27-9) is no longer the featherweight champion who put together a 13-fight winning streak after the first McGregor fight, but he has stayed active. He is coming off a wide decision loss to Charles Oliveira at UFC 326 in March, and the 34-year-old former BMF titleholder will be making his welterweight debut, a 15-pound jump from lightweight. He still owns the UFC’s all-time records for significant strikes landed and total strikes landed.
The pair first met on August 17, 2013, at UFC Fight Night 26 in Boston, when a 25-year-old McGregor took a unanimous decision over a 21-year-old Holloway despite tearing his ACL during the fight. Holloway responded with a career-defining 13-fight unbeaten run. McGregor became the promotion’s biggest-ever star.
Thirteen years later, the rematch is finally booked. The oddsmakers, and the bettors moving the largest tickets, are not betting on a sequel that mirrors the first.